Evaluación, predicción y modelación del potencial eólico//Assessment, forecasting and modeling of wind potential

Authors

  • Danitza María Cortes-Pérez Universidad Nacional de Colombia. Facultad de Ingeniería. Bogotá

Abstract

Los modelos matemáticos que existen para caracterizar el potencial energético del viento; incluyen los modelos de distribución paramétricos en rangos de velocidades entre 3 y 9m/s (Weibull, Log-Normal) y de 0 a 15m/s (Gamma). En la investigación se diseñó un algoritmo matemático de predicción del recurso eólico analizando las velocidades, direcciones y rugosidad del sitio seleccionado para generar perfiles del viento y la rosa de vientos. Se emplearon series de tiempo, con velocidades desde 0 hasta 15m/s. El sistema analiza los datos a través de la estadística inferencial, y realiza la proyección mediante la distribución de modelos paramétricos. El algoritmo se validó con datos de dos sitios en Colombia: la estación de Puerto Bolívar y la estación de Usme, comparando los valores simulados mediante el algoritmo propuesto y los modelos tradicionales, obteniendo una óptima correlación de datos en el rango ampliado de 0 a 15 m/s.

Palabras claves: potencial eólico, modelo matemático, modelo estadístico, programa computacional.
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Abstract

The mathematical models exist to characterize the wind energy potential, include parametric distribution models in speed ranges from 3 y 9m/s (Weibull, Log-Normal) y de 0 a 15m/s (Gamma). In research was designed a mathematical prediction algorithm for the wind resource analyzing the speeds, directions and roughness of the selected site to generate wind profiles and the wind rose. Time series were used with speeds from 0 to 15 m/s.
The system analyzes the data through inferential statistics and performs projections by distribution of parametric models. The algorithm was validated with data from two sities in Colombia: The Puerto Bolivar station and Usme station. Comparing the simulated values using the proposed algorithm and the traditional models, obtaining an optimal correlation in the expanded range data of 0 to 15 m/s.

Key words: wind potential, mathematical model, statistical model, computational program.

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How to Cite

1.
Cortes-Pérez DM. Evaluación, predicción y modelación del potencial eólico//Assessment, forecasting and modeling of wind potential. Ing. Mec. [Internet]. 2016 Sep. 1 [cited 2025 Sep. 13];19(3):167-75. Available from: https://ingenieriamecanica.cujae.edu.cu/index.php/revistaim/article/view/548

Issue

Vol. 19 No. 3 (2016): septiembre-diciembre

Section

Original article

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