Pronóstico del recorrido mensual de una flota de camiones North Benz // Forecast of a North Benz truck fleet´s monthly mileage

Authors

  • Buenaventura Rubén Rigol-Cardona Universidad de Holguín, Facultad de Ingeniería. Holguín
  • Erik Reyes-Gómez Universidad de Holguín, Facultad de Ingeniería. Holguín
  • Esteban López-Milán Universidad de Holguín, Facultad de Ingeniería. Holguín
  • Luís Miquel Plà-Aragonès Universidad de Lleida, Departamento de Matemática. Lleida

Abstract

Los camiones se convirtieron en imprescindibles para el funcionamiento de los sistemas de transporte de carga y las empresas consideraron múltiples variables en sus operaciones. Una de ellas fue la distancia recorrida, donde se observaron fluctuaciones con causas asignables en ocasiones a las empresas, y decreció en el tiempo. El objetivo del artículo fue pronosticar para una flota de 33 camiones marca North Benz en el año 2021, el posible recorrido mensual de un camión, cuya variación se atenuó con la técnica de medias móviles. Se obtuvo un modelo matemático de la media móvil del recorrido mensual en función de la edad del camión, la desviación típica del recorrido y el error relativo del recorrido. El modelo se aplicó para pronosticar el desempeño de la flota mencionada en la empresa, y se contribuyó a facilitar la toma de decisiones en la planificación de la oferta de transportación y sus ingresos en la empresa.

Palabras claves: flota de camiones, método estadístico, recorrido mensual, pronóstico.


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Abstract

Trucks became essential for the freight transportation systems´ functioning and the enterprises considered several variables in their operations. One variable was the mileage, where fluctuations were observed with assignable causes to the enterprises in several occasions and it decreased over the time. This paper´s objective was to forecast one North Benz truck´s possible monthly mileage in a 33 truck fleet for the 2021 year. The truck´s possible monthly mileage variation was attenuated using the moving average technique. It was obtained a mathematical model of the monthly mileage´s moving average according to the truck age, the mileage´s typical deviation and the mileage´s relative error. The model was applied to forecast the North Benz truck fleet´s performance at the enterprise. It contributed to facilitate the enterprise´s decision taking on the transportation offer and incomeses.

Key words: truck fleet, statistical method, monthly mileage, forecast.

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Published

2021-01-04

How to Cite

1.
Rigol-Cardona BR, Reyes-Gómez E, López-Milán E, Plà-Aragonès LM. Pronóstico del recorrido mensual de una flota de camiones North Benz // Forecast of a North Benz truck fleet´s monthly mileage. Ing. Mec. [Internet]. 2021 Jan. 4 [cited 2025 Sep. 13];24(1):e615. Available from: https://ingenieriamecanica.cujae.edu.cu/index.php/revistaim/article/view/644

Issue

Vol. 24 No. 1 (2021): enero-abril

Section

Original article

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